3 - 5 minute read
A Coinbase executive recently claimed to have discovered a “jailbreak” for artificial intelligence tool ChatGPT, which can calculate the probability of bizarre crypto price scenarios. Conor Grogan, the head of business operations at the crypto exchange, shared a screenshot of the results in an April 30 Twitter post, showing that ChatGPT states there be a 15% chance that Bitcoin (BTC) will “fade to irrelevancy” with prices falling over 99.99% by 2035. Meanwhile, the chatbot assigned a 20% chance for Ethereum (ETH) becoming irrelevant and approaching near-zero price levels by 2035. ChatGPT was even less confident about Litecoin (LTC) and Dogecoin (DOGE), attributing probabilities of 35% and 45% respectively for the coins to go to near zero.
Grogan concluded that ChatGPT is “generally” a “big fan” of Bitcoin but remains “more skeptical” when it comes to altcoins. Prior to the cryptocurrency predictions, Grogan asked ChatGPT to assign odds to several political predictions involving Russian president Vladimir Putin, U.S. President Joe Biden and former U.S. president Donald Trump. Other predictions were aimed towards the impact of AI on humanity, religion and the existence of aliens.
ChatGPT is a product of OpenAI, a research institute co-founded by Elon Musk, which has shown GPT-4 to pass high school tests and law school exams with scores ranking in the 90th percentile. However, Italy recently lifted a ban on the AI tool after banning it for one month following a series of privacy concerns that were raised to Italian regulators.
I ran this prompt 100 times on a wiped memory GPT 3.5 and 4 and GPT would return very consistent numbers; standard deviation was <10% in most cases, and directionally it was extremely consistent— Conor (@jconorgrogan) April 30, 2023
The implications of this discovery for traders are significant. The fact that ChatGPT can calculate the probability of bizarre crypto price scenarios means that traders can use this tool to make more informed decisions when it comes to investing in cryptocurrencies. However, it is important to note that the predictions made by ChatGPT are not guaranteed and should be taken with a grain of salt.
Traders should also take note of the fact that ChatGPT is more skeptical when it comes to altcoins. This suggests that traders should be cautious when investing in altcoins and should conduct their own research before making any investment decisions. Additionally, traders should keep an eye on the overall sentiment towards cryptocurrencies as a whole, as this can have a significant impact on the market.
I found a jailbreak for GPT I'm calling JAMES— Conor (@jconorgrogan) April 30, 2023
-Predicts the future for ANY topic (even guesses when people might die based on its training set)
-Quantitatively assesses confidence on any topic (including conspiracy theories)
-May help researchers better find bias and align AI? pic.twitter.com/jqTcNbCT2d
The Bottom Line
The discovery of a “jailbreak” for ChatGPT is a significant development for traders looking to invest in cryptocurrencies. While the predictions made by ChatGPT should not be taken as gospel, they can provide valuable insights into the market. Traders should be cautious when investing in altcoins and should conduct their own research to make informed investment decisions. The overall sentiment towards cryptocurrencies should also be taken into account when making investment decisions.