Is a Bitcoin sell-off coming? Binance BTC balance surge raises market concerns

In the Brief:

  • Binance gains 50,000 BTC in a month, with a total BTC balance of almost 100,000 more than in March
  • Other exchanges saw losses or insignificant increases
  • Total holdings of tracked exchanges at 1.919 million BTC
  • Investor habits pressure bulls to maintain $30,000 support
  • $35,000 is a key zone for liquidating leveraged short positions
  • More shorts than longs, with $30,000 as unsupported

4 - 7 minute read

Bitcoin (BTC) traders may be gearing up for a sell-off as data shows tens of thousands of coins moving to exchanges. The latest figures from on-chain monitoring resource Coinglass confirm that global trading volume leader Binance’s BTC balance rose by over 50,000 BTC ($1.5 billion) in the past 30 days. With BTC/USD setting multi-month highs regularly since mid-March, the temptation to sell for both long-term (LTHs) and short-term holders (STHs) has no doubt increased.

As Cointelegraph reported, actual selling pressure has thus far remained muted by historical standards, but on-chain data suggests that this could easily change. According to Coinglass, Binance alone now has 51,000 BTC more on its books than 30 days ago. Versus March 10, when BTC/USD briefly challenged $20,000 support, its balance is up by almost 100,000 BTC, separate data from analytics platform CryptoQuant confirms.

Binance, with the largest trading volume of any exchange — the past 24 hours alone worth over $10 billion — is something of an outlier. Other major exchanges have in fact lost BTC or seen insignificant balance increases. Aggregate increases over 30 days to April 28 thus total around 14,000 BTC, with the combined total holdings of the exchanges tracked by Coinglass now at 1.919 million BTC.

Binance BTC balance vs. BTC/USD chart. Source: CryptoQuant

Investor habits witnessed in recent weeks arguably increase pressure on bulls to flip $30,000 to support and continue rising. The area around that level is the site of record historical transaction volume, making the significance of $30,000 more than just psychological.

Bitcoin exchange BTC balance vs. BTC/USD chart. Source: Coinglass

The current state of liquidity across exchanges tracked by trading suite Decentrader meanwhile shows that $35,000 is a key zone for liquidating leveraged BTC short positions. In part of ongoing market analysis, Decentrader noted that despite BTC/USD recovering from local lows to trade near $29,500 on the day, bets on $30,000 remaining out of reach as support were continuing to pile up.

BTC/USD liquidity map (screenshot). Source: DecenTrader

“Long Short ratio now showing that there are more shorts than longs,” it summarized to Twitter followers. “This is at the same time as we’ve seen nearly $1 billion in Open Interest return, suggesting a lot of people are shorting the $30k resistance.”

Bitcoin long/short ratio chart. Source: Decentrader/ Twitter

The Bottom Line

Bitcoin traders should brace for a potential sell-off as tens of thousands of coins move to exchanges, particularly Binance, in the past 30 days. Although selling pressure remains muted, on-chain data suggests this could change, and investors are increasing pressure on bulls to flip $30,000 to support and continue rising. Traders should be mindful of the significance of $30,000, which is more than just psychological as it is the site of record historical transaction volume. Additionally, traders should keep an eye on the key zone of $35,000 for liquidating leveraged BTC short positions.

Disclaimer: The content in this article is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial or trading advice. We are not financial advisors, and trading carries high risk. Always consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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