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Ethereum’s Ether (ETH) token has dropped by over 7.5% in its Bitcoin (BTC) pair in 2023. However, it appears that ETH/BTC will wipe its year-to-date (YTD) losses entirely in April due to Ethereum’s long-awaited Shanghai hard fork, which is set for April 12. The upgrade will enable Ethereum stakers to withdraw around 1.1 billion ETH in rewards, worth over $2 billion as of April 8.
Many experts see the hard fork as bullish for Ether in the long term, and the Shanghai buzz has helped Ether outperform Bitcoin so far in April. The ETH/BTC pair has risen by about 4.75% month-to-date to reach 0.066 BTC as of April 8, a nearly 8% rebound since March 20.
Technical Bounce for ETH
The bounce was largely expected, particularly as ETH/BTC dropped to its historical ascending trendline support. Now, the upside move raises the prospects of an extended bullish retracement toward its descending trendline resistance, marked as a “sell zone.” The fractal-based outlook puts Ether on target for 0.075 BTC by June, up 10% versus current price levels. Meanwhile, the pair’s upside target for April appears to be at its 50-3D exponential moving average (50-3D EMA), which is near 0.069 BTC.
Conversely, a decisive close below the 200-3D EMA, which is the blue wave and close to 0.066 BTC, coinciding with the support/resistance level near 0.067 BTC, risks delaying or invalidating the bullish retracement setup. This bearish argument echoes CrediBULL Crypto’s opinion, an independent market analyst who expects strong selling pressure near the 0.067 BTC resistance level that would lead to a 50% drop in 2023.
ETH/USD Pair Rally
The ETH/USD pair has rallied by more than 50% in 2023, primarily due to similar uptrends in the crypto market. A weakening dollar, lower U.S. Treasury yields, and expectations of a Federal Reserve pivot on interest rate hikes have helped cryptocurrencies rise across the board in Q1. These catalysts will likely remain in the spotlight until the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in May.
As a result, Ether could sustain its yearly gains in April, consolidating inside the $1,800-2,000 range until the Fed decision. Moreover, a decisive breakout at current levels could result in extended gains, with a second-quarter ETH price target of over $3,000.
On the other hand, the bears will attempt to pull the price down for a close below $1,800, with the triangle’s lower trendline near $1,600 as its downside target.
The Ethereum Shanghai hard fork is expected to have a positive impact on ETH, with a potential bullish retracement towards its descending trendline resistance, marked as a “sell zone.” This growth has led to Ether outperforming Bitcoin so far in April. However, traders should conduct their research before making any trading decisions as every investment and trading move involves risk.