Solana’s $20 Pullback Retest: Will Recovery Prevail?

In the Brief:

  • Solana (SOL) experienced a pullback and retested the $20 level.
  • The pullback was due to a broader market sell-off and profit-taking.
  • SOL has strong fundamentals and a growing ecosystem.
  • Technical indicators suggest a potential recovery for SOL.
  • Investors should monitor SOL's price action and consider buying the dip.

3 - 5 minute read

Solana [SOL] has been experiencing a pullback retest recently, which could offer new buying opportunities for investors. However, sentiment has fallen, and funding rates have turned negative, calling for caution among bulls.

Throughout Q1 2023, SOL bulls have successfully defended the $20 support, except during the US bank run in mid-March. Although SOL rebounded at $16 after dropping below $20 during the US bank crisis, it faced rejection at a key trading value of $23 and retreated to the $20 demand zone.

At press time, the Solana network continued to face increased competition as one of the most popular NFT collections on the network, y00ts, dumped it for Polygon [MATIC]. Additionally, the adjusted TVL on the chain has dropped from $400M in January to $144M as of 31 March, according to DappRadar.

SRC: Tradingview

SOL has been oscillating in the $20 – $26 range for the past three months, with a false breakout in mid-March leading to bulls pushing it back to the range. Currently, SOL operates in the lower range ($20 – $23). However, a previous pullback retest did not end up in a rally, which could call for patience after Bitcoin [BTC] dropped below $29k, heading into the weekend.

SOL could rebound strongly if BTC reclaims $29k and offers new buying opportunities if bulls can defend the $20 support. However, bulls must clear a key hurdle at $21.25 to retest the Volume Profile Visible Range’s (VRVP) point of control (POC) of $23, a key sell pressure level that bulls must overcome to reach $26.

A close below $18 could attract more bears and sink SOL to $16. The primary buying opportunity could exist at $20 if BTC surges. A second buying opportunity could open up if SOL rebounds at $16.

The RSI was below 50 at press time, showing increased sell pressure. Similarly, the OBV (On Balance Volume) and CMF (Chaikin Money Flow) moved southwards, indicating declining trading volumes and increased sellers’ influence in the market at the time of writing.

According to Santiment, SOL’s funding rates turned negative, while weighted sentiment fell to a neutral level. It shows demand for SOL dropped, but the neutral sentiment means no player had absolute leverage. On the other hand, development activity dipped, which could dent investors’ confidence in the token and delay a strong recovery.

SOL could recover if the bulls defend $20 support, but BTC’s price action and development activity calls for caution before making moves. It is important to note that the information presented does not constitute financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice and is solely the writer’s opinion. Trading carries high risks, and investors should always do their research before making any financial decisions.

Disclaimer: The content in this article is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial or trading advice. We are not financial advisors, and trading carries high risk. Always consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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