4 - 7 minute read
OpenAI’s CEO, Sam Altman, recently shared his vision for the future of OpenAI, and it’s certainly ambitious. Altman believes that the development of AGI by OpenAI and other leading companies will lead to the capture of a considerable portion of the world’s wealth. This wealth will then be redistributed to the people, primarily through the implementation of Universal Basic Income (UBI) and the creation of the American Equity Fund. This fund would be funded by taxing companies above a certain valuation, as well as privately-held land. The money will then be used to fund science for the benefit of society.
The concept of AGI is still largely elusive, but Altman suggests that, once developed, it has the potential to transform society dramatically. But with such a potentially significant shift in wealth, it is unclear how it will be distributed. Altman’s focus on UBI and funding science for the benefit of society do provide a possible solution, but the effectiveness of these solutions in practice remains to be seen.
The Potential Impact of LLMs on the Workforce
OpenAI has recently released a paper that discusses the potential job impacts of large language models (LLMs). The paper suggests that access to LLMs could lead to 15% of work tasks in the US being completed faster at the same level of quality. When incorporating software and tooling built on top of LLMs, this number increases up to approximately 50% of all tasks.
The paper demonstrates how the effects of LLMs on task exposure increase as educational levels and salary ranges go up in the workforce, indicating potential increases in inequality. The paper also reveals that up to 49% of workers could have half or more of their tasks exposed to LLMs, even if further development of new capabilities is held.
These findings highlight potential issues of inequality and the impact AI development is likely to have on jobs. As LLMs and other AI technologies continue to advance, it highlights the need to consider the impact on society as a whole, especially as the development of AGI could lead to significant changes in socioeconomic structures.
Potential Factors that Could Slow Down AI Development
Despite the predicted impact that LLMs and AI technologies could have on the future of the workforce, several factors could slow down their economic impact. One significant aspect is politics, as a recent survey shows that 69% of Americans support a six-month pause on some kinds of AI development. Meanwhile, if negative economic impacts occur, this figure is likely to increase, leading to calls for regulation and taxation of AI development.
Another potential barrier to AI adoption is cultural pushback. For example, when Levi’s attempted to test AI-generated clothing models, they faced backlash and had to clarify that they were not replacing human models. People may also show a preference for human-made output over machine-generated output, as recent research has shown that humans prefer human-made art over computer-generated art.
Language Models in the Current Workforce
While there may be potential barriers to AI adoption, the productivity gains from language models are already being seen in various industries. For example, experiments have shown that developers using OpenAI’s Copilot complete tasks in less than half the time compared to those who do not. Similarly, white-collar professionals using language models like GPT-3.5 take significantly less time to complete writing tasks than those in a control group.
As language models continue to improve, it remains to be seen how they will impact the workforce in the long term. While some jobs may be replaced, there is also the potential for these models to help workers be more productive in their current roles.
Advice for Traders
The potential impact of AI on the economy and the workforce is yet to be fully realized. As OpenAI’s vision for the development of AGI and the impact of LLMs on the workforce gain traction, it highlights the need to consider the impact of AI on society as a whole.
For traders, it is essential to stay aware of new developments in AI and consider how it could impact the value of companies operating in industries likely to be disrupted by these technologies. It is also necessary to consider how regulations and taxation may impact AI companies’ profitability and adjust trading strategies accordingly.
As AI technologies continue to advance, it is critical to stay informed and adapt to changes in the market. While the long-term implications of AI development are yet to be fully understood, being proactive in assessing the impact on asset values is essential for traders to stay ahead of the curve.